The best estimate we have is about 30 attempts on average, not the six or seven you usually hear. It comes from a study that followed smokers forward in time instead of asking successful quitters to remember. That sounds discouraging. Read on, because what the number actually says is more useful than the reassuring version.
If you are here after a quit that didn't hold, you have probably been told that most people need a few tries. The real figure is higher, and the reason it is higher tells you something about your next attempt.
Where the number comes from
In 2016, Chaiton and colleagues used the Ontario Tobacco Survey, which followed 1,277 smokers who tried to quit, checking in every six months for up to three years from 2005 (Chaiton et al., BMJ Open, 2016). They estimated how many attempts it takes before one finally holds, under four different sets of assumptions.
The answers ranged widely. Under assumptions matching earlier research, the average was 6.1 attempts. A constant-rate approach gave 19.6. The method the authors judged least biased gave 29.6. Adding people's own memories of their past attempts pushed it to 142.
Their conclusion is the line worth keeping: for many smokers it may take 30 or more attempts before one succeeds.
Two caveats. The study is ten years old, and it covers one Canadian province. We looked for a newer study that re-estimates the number with the same forward-looking design and did not find one, so this is the best available answer rather than a settled one.
Why the old number was so much lower
The familiar "six or seven" came mostly from asking people who had already quit how many times they had tried.
That method has two problems. People forget attempts, especially the ones that lasted a morning. And it only counts people who succeeded, so the smokers still trying never enter the average. The Ontario authors put it plainly: earlier estimates left out the smokers who have greater difficulty quitting. Put them back in and the average rises.
Following people forward fixes both problems. You count attempts as they happen, and you keep counting the people who haven't made it yet.
What 30 does and doesn't mean
An average describes a group. It doesn't tell you how many attempts you personally will need, and nobody is owed 29 failures before the one that works. Some people quit on their first serious attempt.
What the number does tell you is that a failed attempt is the normal case. Most attempts don't last, which means most people who eventually quit for good got there after false starts of their own. A relapse isn't failure. It's information. We have written separately about what a single slip after quitting does and doesn't mean, and it is worth reading alongside this.
Where attempts actually break
If most attempts fail, it helps to know when.
A review of smokers who quit without any treatment found that most relapse happens in the first eight days, and that 3 to 5 percent of unaided attempts last six to twelve months (Hughes, Keely and Naud, Addiction, 2004). The review is over twenty years old. We still use it because it describes the shape of what happens to people quitting on their own, which doesn't date the way a treatment result does. Its authors' practical conclusion was that help should concentrate on the first week.
So an attempt is usually won or lost early, in a few predictable moments. The first meal. The first chai. The first evening out with friends. The first bad afternoon at work.
What predicts the attempt that holds
The number of tries you have behind you is not the main thing. Circumstances seem to matter more.
A 2026 analysis of Global Adult Tobacco Survey data from 29 countries, covering 51,196 people, looked separately at what predicted making a quit attempt and what predicted actually quitting (Wies et al., Tobacco Control, 2026). Country-level tobacco laws predicted who tried. Who succeeded was predicted more strongly by individual factors: how heavily a person smoked, and whether their home was a place where smoking was allowed.
That second finding is worth sitting with in India, where many people live with family and the smoker in the house might be a father, a brother or a flatmate. It is an association, not proof of cause. Still, it points to something you can plan for. If home is where you smoke, home is where the next attempt needs a plan. Our post on quitting when the people around you smoke has a section on living with a smoker.
What to change before the next attempt
In our view, trying the same way again with more determination is the least promising option on the table. Willpower is not what decides this. What decides it is whether the moments that broke the last attempt have a plan this time.
Find where the last one broke. Not the general reason, the exact moment. After dinner on day four. The first drink at a cousin's wedding. Write it down.
Write a plan for that moment, in if-then form. If I finish dinner and want one, then I walk to the end of the lane without the pack. A 2025 meta-analysis of 642 tests found that plans in this shape help turn an intention into the action you meant (Sheeran, Listrom and Gollwitzer, 2025). We keep a longer list of what to do instead, sorted by the kind of moment.
Treat the first week as the main event. That is where the Hughes review says attempts are lost. Plan days one to eight in detail and let the weeks after follow.
And whenever you see a quit success rate, it is worth knowing how quit rates get measured before you compare it with anything.
Where Nicoxit comes in
Nicoxit is built on the idea at the centre of this post: an attempt is decided by specific moments, so you study yours before you quit. You keep smoking for the first six days. Day 3 has you log what actually sets each cigarette off. By Day 6 you are writing if-then plans for your own most common triggers, and Day 7 is the quit.
If you slip afterwards, nothing resets. Milestones you have reached stay reached, and "Log an urge" records what set the slip off, so the next plan is built on what actually happened.
31 modules over seven days, about forty minutes a day, then it's done. Cigarettes, vapes, hookah and IQOS.
Not medical advice.
References
- Chaiton, M., Diemert, L., Cohen, J. E., Bondy, S. J., Selby, P., Philipneri, A., & Schwartz, R. (2016). Estimating the number of quit attempts it takes to quit smoking successfully in a longitudinal cohort of smokers. BMJ Open, 6(6), e011045. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2016-011045
- Hughes, J. R., Keely, J., & Naud, S. (2004). Shape of the relapse curve and long-term abstinence among untreated smokers. Addiction, 99(1), 29–38. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1360-0443.2004.00540.x
- Wies, C., Al Ssabbagh, M., Elango, V., Schiavone, S., Anderson, C. L., Theilmann, M., Geldsetzer, P., Hoe, C., Winkler, V., & Brinker, T. J. (2026). Tobacco control policies predict quit attempts, but household smoking predicts cessation success across 29 countries. Tobacco Control. Advance online publication. https://doi.org/10.1136/tc-2025-059403
- Sheeran, P., Listrom, O., & Gollwitzer, P. M. (2025). The when and how of planning: Meta-analysis of the scope and components of implementation intentions in 642 tests. European Review of Social Psychology, 36(1), 162–194. https://doi.org/10.1080/10463283.2024.2334563
Frequently asked questions
How many attempts does it take to quit smoking on average?
A study that followed 1,277 Canadian smokers forward in time estimated about 30 attempts on average, using the method its authors judged least biased. Older estimates of six or seven relied on successful quitters remembering their attempts, which leaves out the people who find quitting hardest.
Is it normal to fail at quitting smoking?
Yes. Most quit attempts don't last, so a failed attempt is the usual case rather than a sign that something is wrong with you. Most people who quit for good have been through false starts first.
Why do most quit attempts fail so early?
A review of people quitting without treatment found most relapse happens in the first eight days. The first meal, the first evening out and the first stressful day tend to decide an attempt, which is why planning the first week matters most.
What should I do differently after a relapse?
Find the exact moment the last attempt broke, write an if-then plan for that moment, and plan the first week in detail. Repeating the same attempt with more effort is the least promising option.
Does living with a smoker make quitting harder?
In a 29-country analysis of survey data, whether smoking was allowed at home was one of the stronger predictors of who succeeded in quitting. It is an association rather than proof, but it makes home worth planning for.
